New analysis projects $8B in long-term benefits from Mid-States Corridor, INDOT says; Some figures require context

A new economic analysis says Section 2 of the Mid-States Corridor project in Dubois County could bring benefits worth four times its estimated cost, according to a July 15 announcement from the Indiana Department of Transportation. (Release attached at the end of the story.)

But questions submitted by the Dubois County Free Press to INDOT reveal that some of the release’s headline figures are measured on different bases, and that the full report supporting the numbers will not be publicly available until later this year.

INDOT says the analysis uses the Transportation Economic Development Impact System, or TREDIS, a modeling tool used by the U.S. Department of Transportation and over 30 state agencies. Lochmueller Group, the contractor for the Tier 2 study, did the analysis for INDOT, using a method developed with INDOT and the Federal Highway Administration.

The Mid-States Corridor project aims to improve access to major business markets, make truck and freight movement more efficient in southern Indiana, and strengthen links to intermodal transportation centers.

Because accessibility is such a key driver of economic activity, the project also supports broader goals of
economic development and regional growth, according to INDOT’s press release.

“Improved regional access is essential for both manufacturing and distribution sectors in southern Indiana, which depend on efficient connections to major markets and freight routes,” Indiana Secretary of Transportation and Infrastructure Matt Ubelhor said in the release. “Manufacturing plays a vital role in the economy of Dubois County and surrounding region, supporting hundreds of local families through well-paying jobs and contributing to the community’s tax base and overall economic stability.”

By 2050, the analysis expects the project to bring 1,371 new jobs, 961 new households, and 2,043 more residents to the region. Additionally, INDOT stated $427 million in additional business output in 2050 alone, with the biggest gains in manufacturing ($180 million) and agriculture ($92 million).

The release says the projected benefits are “more than four times the estimated project cost” and that the total benefit through 2050 is about $8 billion.

Those two figures are not directly comparable, INDOT confirmed in response to questions from the Free Press.

According to INDOT, the $8 billion figure is the total of all projected benefits from 2026 to 2055, without adjusting for inflation.

The “four times” comparison is based on both projected benefits and project costs adjusted to 2023 dollars, which is the base year in the TREDIS model, using a 3.1% discount rate.

In practice, this means the $8 billion headline number and the “four times cost” comparison both come from the same model, but are calculated differently. One is a total over three decades, while the other compares present-value figures.

INDOT also said the cost figure used in the “four times” comparison is an updated Tier 2 estimate that now includes land acquisition and right-of-way costs, unlike earlier public figures. INDOT did not share the updated dollar amount with the Free Press. Earlier estimates for the Dubois County section, which left out land acquisition, put the cost at about $1.1 billion.

In a subsequent email, INDOT stated, “The TREDIS model uses a cost estimate of $1.18 billion. This includes land acquisition and construction costs and incorporates design refinements made since the publication of the Screening of Alternatives Report.”

INDOT said the figures in the release—new jobs, households, residents, and business output—show projected benefits from developing Section 2 in Dubois County. However, the model also covers Spencer, Daviess, and Martin counties.

When asked if the projected figures show net new economic activity or just total business output, which could include shifts from existing activity, INDOT said the $8 billion total “represent[s] a ‘net’ benefit” and accounts for such displacement. However, the agency did not explain how the model separates new activity from displaced activity.

The full TREDIS report and its methodology will not be available to the public until INDOT releases the project’s Draft Environmental Impact Statement, which is expected this fall, according to the agency.

The Mid-States Corridor project has reached several milestones since the Tier 1 study began in 2019. The last major step was the Screening of Alternatives Report in fall 2025. The next big update is expected this fall, when the DEIS will be released and a single preferred alternative will be announced.

For more information about the Mid-States Corridor project, visit MidStatesCorridor.com.

This story has been updated to reflect a new cost estimate for the Dubois County section of the Mid-States Corridor.