Economic growth, not a recession, is the norm. For every one quarter the U.S. has spent in recession since the end of World War II, we’ve spent eight quarters growing. Of the 75 quarters in this century, only 10 have been recessionary. I’m counting our current quarter as growth, which may prove a bit optimistic. …
A turbulent week in the economy is a very good time to write about fundamentals. Trade, its origins, and its benefits are a timely topic. I must warn readers that these ideas aren’t very hard, but rather shockingly simple. They will challenge what you’ve heard in the media and on the campaign trail. The elemental…
The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meets this week to consider whether to ease the money supply. The most obvious mechanism for doing this is by reducing the interest rates they charge member banks. This change will filter quickly to bank loans on cars, on homes and eventually on credit cards. More money leads to…
The past decade has seen a blossoming of research on the geography of employment and the effect of automation on the demand for workers and skills. These studies benefitted from significantly richer data sets on people and skills that enabled substantially more sophisticated labor market analysis. I especially admire work done by David Autor and…
Every presidential campaign contains a share of pandering drivel. One idea that currently fits that bill is the idea of cancelling the roughly $1.6 trillion of outstanding college debt. I will explain why this is a bad idea, and outline some of the real problems underlying college costs. However, I must begin by noting that…
Cities often tout their low cost of living as a tool for attracting new residents. On the face of it, that would make sense. After all, who wouldn’t like to pay less for the things they buy; home, auto, food and recreation? Who would not wish to move to an adjacent neighborhood and pay less…
I gave a talk to the Indiana Superintendent’s Summit this week, and thought the issues I discussed might be of interest to Hoosiers as we think about our state’s economy. I began by sharing what the state’s Constitution says about education: “Knowledge and learning, general diffused throughout a community, being essential to the preservation of…
With the mid-year point rapidly approaching, I like to review my 2019 forecast and evaluate what I got wrong and what I got really wrong. Of course, all forecasts are wrong, but some are more useful than others. So far, it looks like I have been off just a little through 2019. My forecast was…
Our Republic is a unique place, founded on radical ideas. The notion that we each have value, we have rights bestowed by higher authority and we can only be ruled through the consent of the governed remain as fresh, revolutionary philosophies. From the very beginning, service in our armed forces differed from that of other…
The research center where I work just released a study on immigration in Indiana. Sociologist Emily Wornell was the lead author of a work that most Hoosiers will find interesting. Part of the study reported surprising data, but there was also some analysis that should clarify many misunderstandings about the issue. Let me explain. So…
